The probability of the outcome is exactly the same every time you flip it, so the probability of being right is exactly the same. The reason it looks different is that there are many flips. A random 1 in 100,000 flip could easily make your percentage up or down by 20-30% — there’s no guarantee, so you have to assume the probability of being right is exactly the same every time you flip a coin.

So a six appears twice, with the first appearing slightly more often than the second, but the difference is very small.

Taking the long view, a 5 appears once, with the first appearing slightly more often than the second, but the difference is also very small. But the difference becomes important over time, and there is absolutely no way to predict what the long-term trend will be. If you flip a coin 20,000 times, your percentage of being right will be in a lot of different positions.

To give an example, let’s assume the initial coin distribution for 10,000 coins is 50/50, and the long-term distribution is 60/40. This is very different from the distribution for a single flip of a coin. Even with the same number of flips, you’re not going to flip the coin 6 times or 5 times or 3 times, and that changes the long-term distribution of what the probability of being right is.

Pretend I have a $1 bill. I am going to flip $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000

Finally, I am going to flip a coin 20,000 times. The chance of flipping tails will be 2/20,000, or 2%. If I flip tails, the counter will count $13,200,000.